Vicky Turner

Here’s the British Columbia Real Estate’s take on the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement yesterday.  Canada’s economic capacity may not return to normal levels until 2015…..had been predicted for 2014.  That means there are wicked mortgage rates out there and a prognostication for that to remain the status quo – c’mon buyers! 

Vicky

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW…..

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement – April 17, 2013

The Bank of Canada kept its target overnight rate at 1 per cent this morning. In the statement  accompanying the decision, the Bank forecast that the Canadian economy will gain momentum through the year following a weak second half in 2012, but slow growth through the first half of this year will limit real GDP growth to just 1.5 per cent in 2013 before rising to 2.8 in 2014. The Bank’s revised forecast means that the economy is now projected to return to full capacity in mid-2015, rather than in 2014 as previously predicted. A more persistent output gap will keep downward pressure on inflation, which is now expected to gradually rise to the 2 per cent target rate by mid-2015. The Bank continued to sound a much more dovish note on future rate increases, noting that the considerable policy stimulus currently in place will likely remain appropriate for “a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required.”  

With an expanding output gap and inflation trending well below its 2 per cent target, it is natural to ask if the next move by the Bank of Canada is a rate cut rather than the rate hike that almost all economists have penciled into their forecasts. However, unless the economy deteriorates much more or inflation trends much lower, the Bank is unlikely to lower interest rates since doing so would run counter to a year of loudly exhorting households to cut back on debt. Instead, the Bank will likely continue to use forward guidance about the need, or lack thereof, for future rate hikes in order to influence long-term rates and the Canadian dollar lower. The combined of effect of which should provide continued stimulus to the Canadian economy.

For more information, please contact:

BCREA represents 11 member real estate boards and their approximately 18,000 REALTORS® on all provincial issues, providing an extensive communications network, standard forms, economic research and analysis, government relations, applied practice courses and continuing professional education (cpe).

Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: “Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.

Here we are, half way through April 2013 and our real estate board reports that there have been 258 residential sales so far this month.  What does that indicate?  That we MIGHT be headed toward the same number of sales for April (year over year) – as compared to April 2012.  A year ago there were 586 residential sales in the Greater Victoria area during the month of April.  We might, just might surpass that…

What a morale booster this would be…….number of sales has been lagging for almost 9 months now.  It’s about time we all had some good news for sellers…..buyers have had a monoply on that.

According to the British Columbia Real Estate Association (link to press release below) March 2013 posted the greatest seasonally adjusted month to month increase in sales since January 2011 – wow over 2 years.    But sales dollar volume throughout BC has dropped 22.1% year over year.  (Victoria -21.6%).  Every Board in the Province has experienced lower dollar volumes except the Powell River area.

Year over year,  March 2013 unit sales were down 18.1% in Victoria and average prices (please remember this is a compulation of all property types) are down by 4.9%.

As has been the case over the last 5 years, those who purchased in 2007 or before that time have generally built up some extra equity and those who purchased during the last 5 years probably have seen a lesser gain.

Please remember – it is still all about pricing Sellers!  Buyers are demonstrating this spring that they “get” that….

http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/docs/news-2013/2013-03.pdf

Sales are up – but only the properties with a price that the sophisticated, knowledgable buyers we have around here can relate to. This is also the first month of what we call the “Spring Market” which should last into June…..

Predictible results – according to the President of the Victoria Real Estate Board. Overall, sales were 15% lower (numbers of) than March, 2012.

As I have been saying for two years now, unless Sellers are realistic on their asking price they will languish. Lately, if the price is bang on there are multiple offers, we are seeing a few every week.

Activity has been greatly tempered by the federal changes in lending policies brought in during July 2012. We are no longer on the same playing field vis a vis first time buyers who usually are a catalyst to movement in the market from the bottom up.

Six month averages in the sale price of single family homes show a scant decrease of less than 1% according to the Real Estate Board.

Condo sales were down last month and townhouse sales were up.

Lending rates are at an all time low but buyers with less than 20% down are subject to stringent rules now (for the last 9 months) and this has made a marked difference in our market.

Financing: According to 3 articles I read last week, mortgage rates could go a trifle lower if Jim Flaherty does not interfere as he has done lately. As rates have dropped consumers are moving into 5 year mortgages and beyond. Good move. Rates will go up again, they always do. Homeowners must be prepared for that rainy day…..that is why lenders are being so picky at the moment. Yes, you can afford it now – what about 3 years from now?

If you have any questions/queries regarding your home and the market in general, you know I am always here at 250-217-2313 or bvturner@shaw.ca

May the gorgeous spring weather that has graced Victoria in the last week or so move to all parts of Canada – soon!

Cautious optimism here.  Mortgage rates at all time lows, buyers take heed of this!  Sellers, your home will sell if priced correctly in this market – buyers KNOW value, better educated every day…….

http://www.royallepage.ca/en/media/130404-royal-lepage-house-price-survey-q1-2013.aspx?toolstips=1052&relatedcontent=1074

Sales are picking up in Victoria BC toward the end of February 2013.

Average single family home prices in Saanich East area $500-$600,000. One bedroom condos (some) are now under $200,000.  18 sales in the last 24 hours – 3 of them over a million dollars.

Canadian Mortgage & Housing Corporation have released the following quarterly report.  For those of you who are not aware – CHMC (as it is known) is a federal agency in Canada that insures mortgages for buyers who have less than 20% downpayment.  Have a read!

https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/catalog/productDetail.cfm?cat=129&itm=1&lang=en&fr=1361577040975

For all you real estate “junkies” out there I regularly look at the Scotiabank Report on Housing which is published quarterly on their website. I found this one particularly interesting as it speaks about world conditions rather than the ones in our own backyard…..with the continuing euro crisis which will influence our investments (wherever they might be) I thought you would be interested in perusing this report. I urge you to visit www.soctiabank.com to download the report in it’s entirety as there are many graphs which I could not reproduce here, including detailed information on the Canadian housing market…..

Locally, although sales in May 2012 were up considerably from a year previously, prices basically are not. Many of the sales are first time new home condo buyers who are reaping incentives provided at the moment from the BC Government (email me if you are interested in this). Properties between 500-999,000 continue to languish for 60 days or so on the market and about 48% of listed properties are actually selling at the moment. The 1 million and up market has benefited from a fair number of sales in 2012 – a different league for most of us. But even there, value has to be perceived by saavy buyers….

On the cusp of June 21 – I wish you all a pleasant, relaxing summer, Vicky

As promised: below is the Scotiabank article…..

Many residential property markets around the world remain under considerable stress. Home prices, adjusted for inflation, declined on a year-over-year (y/y) basis in the first quarter of 2012 in the majority of international markets we track.

The ongoing strains are most pronounced in Europe, particularly in the recession-plagued peripheral economies.

Fiscal austerity measures, rising joblessness and tight credit conditions have sidelined potential buyers even as central banks maintain highly accommodative monetary policy settings. Housing conditions have also cooled in Australia and, to a lesser extent, Canada. The U.S. housing market has shown signs of stabilization in early 2012, though it will take more time to build renewed momentum.

The temperature has also been turned down on housing activity in many developing nations in Asia and Latin America. This in part reflects successful efforts by authorities to rein in excessive property speculation through monetary restraint and/or regulatory measures. But it also mirrors an overall loss of economic momentum alongside the unwinding of earlier fiscal stimulus and reduced global trade flows.

The intensifying euro zone debt crisis, increasing financial market strains and moderating global growth suggest there is more downside risk to property prices in the near term. Eventually, however, improved housing affordability and pent-up demand will put many of these markets on a firmer footing. The era of ultra-low
borrowing costs in most developed economies is expected to persist for longer, while many developing economies are moving to reverse prior rate hikes.

Ireland’s housing slump remains the deepest in our sample.  Average
inflation-adjusted house prices tumbled 19% y/y in the first quarter. The
cumulative decline in prices from their early 2007 peak has reached a
staggering 50%. The share of mortgages in arrears three or more months
climbed to 10% at quarter end, double the comparable U.S. delinquency rate
at its peak in early 2010.

Spain’s property bust also is showing no sign of letting up. Real house prices
fell 9% y/y in Q1, bringing the cumulative drop over the past four years to
almost 30%. With unemployment approaching a record 25% and a massive
glut of unsold homes, it appears prices have further to fall.

Strains were less severe in many other European markets, but prices for the
most part remain under downward pressure. Real house prices in Sweden
slumped 5% y/y, little changed from Q4. U.K. property prices stabilized in
Q1, but were still down 4% y/y. Prices also dipped slightly below year-ago
levels in France for the first time in two years.
Economic Problems Continue To Pressure Global Real Estate Markets

Switzerland is the only European market in our sample to report appreciating home prices in early 2012. However, Swiss housing
also experienced relatively moderate price increases over the past decade, suggesting less overvaluation in current pricing. A low home ownership rate of around 40%, combined with restrictive foreign ownership rules, contribute to its more stable housing market.

Australia’s housing market continues to deflate. Real house prices slid for a fifth consecutive quarter in Q1. Interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia, totaling over a percentage point since November, should provide some relief, but weak
affordability and a softening job market will likely keep many potential buyers on the sidelines.

Encouragingly, the battered U.S. housing market is showing increasing signs of stabilization. Real home price declines slowed
to just 3% y/y in Q1 following an 8% drop in the second half of 2011. The steadying in prices has been accompanied by a gradual, albeit moderate, strengthening in sales.

Underlying U.S. housing fundamentals are becoming more supportive of a sustainable recovery, though weak employment growth
will remain a major hurdle to a faster turnaround. Housing affordability is near record highs, lending conditions are beginning to
ease and household formation has picked up sharply. Inventories levels are being worked down, and mortgage delinquency rates,
while still high, are ebbing. A falling share of deeply-discounted distressed property sales also is helping to support prices.
Canada’s housing market remains an outperformer among developed nations, but conditions here too have cooled. Adjusted for inflation, the national average house price fell 2% y/y in Q1. Price trends are relatively steady in the majority of local
markets, though a few, notably Toronto, continue to report strong appreciation.
Despite historically low borrowing costs, demand has been tempered by moderate income growth and tighter mortgage insurance rules. Meanwhile, supply conditions are becoming better balanced in most parts of the country. We anticipate fairly
flat sales and average prices over the latter half of the year.

China’s housing market continues to cool. Adjusted for inflation, the average price of second-hand homes in Beijing were down 7% y/y in Q1. The deflating of China’s property boom over the past year follows a number of official measures aimed at reining in credit growth and speculative activity, including stricter residency requirements for buyers and limits on second-home purchases.

The modest recovery in Thailand’s housing market in 2011 appears to have stalled again. Average real house prices in the Greater Bangkok area fell 2% y/y in Q1. In Indonesia, average real prices were flat y/y in Q1, and have been more or less
trending sideways since mid-2011.

Housing pressures in India have eased amid moderating demand and increasing supply. Average real home price appreciation slowed to just 4% y/y in Q1, down from almost 12% a year earlier.

In South Korea, real house price growth was steady in Q1 at 3% y/y, with demand supported by several targeted government initiatives.

Mexico’s residential property market recovery has also lost momentum. Average real home prices dipped marginally below year-ago levels in Q1 for the first time in two years. Sluggish U.S. growth and uncertainty ahead of the upcoming Mexican
presidential elections this summer have likely added a note of caution.

Chile’s housing market likewise cooled in early 2012. Real home prices in the Greater Santiago area rose 2% y/y in Q1, a notable slowing from the 6-7% growth of recent quarters.

Real house prices in Colombia have been advancing around a steady
6% y/y in recent quarters, but may well show some moderation when Q1 figures are released later this month.
Statistical Note

The June 2012 issue of Global Real Estate Trends expands the report’s international house price database to a number of emerging markets in Asia and Latin America. Historical price trends and data sources are detailed on page 9. Caution is
warranted when making international price comparisons, as survey methodologies vary considerably. For some countries in our sample, the price indices only capture sales in major centres. Where available, we rely on official national statistical agency
reports. Even here, however, no international standards for compiling residential property price indices currently exist, though progress is being made in many countries to improve data quality and consistency.

Adrienne Warren (416) 866-4315
adrienne.warren@scotiabank.com
Global Economic Research
Global Real Estate Trends
Global Real Estate Report is available on: www.scotiabank.com, Bloomberg at SCOE and Reuters at SM1C
Scotia Economics
Scotia Plaza 40 King Street West, 63rd Floor
Toronto, Ontario Canada M5H 1H1
Tel: (416) 866-6253 Fax: (416) 866-2829
Email: scotia.economics@scotiabank.com

VICKY TURNER
“Commited

The Victoria Real Estate Board today released it’s analysis and statistics for the month of May, 2012. Unit sales are up but prices in most instances are not. Many, many condo sales to first time buyers (with incentives to do so) and properties priced under the 500,000 mark have a better chance of selling than those in the 500-999,000 range unless they contain inlaw suites or additional accomodation.

Hi end properties sold well this month but that is not the average buyer. Total number of listings are up and the list to sale ratio is below 50%……that means that less than half of properties listed sell.

Perception out there is that there is still a strong buyer’s market and seller’s still have to sharpen their pencils to achieve success. Assessed values seem to have little effect and many properties are selling considerably below 2012 Assessments. As 2013 Assessments are determined as of July 1, 2012 data there should be some reductions in those values for homeowners next year…..

Here is what our Board had to say…….

June 1, 2012
MAY 2012 REAL ESTATE MARKET IS PICKING UP IN GREATER VICTORIA
VICTORIA, BC–Consumers are showing confidence in the Greater Victoria real estate market, evidenced
by a spike of 71 residential sales in May 2012 over the previous month. “During the last two or three
months, we’ve seen many potential buyers out looking,” says Carol Crabb, President of the Victoria Real
Estate Board. “During May, they made their decisions. This shows there is good selection on the market,
as well as good value.”
The average price for single family homes sold in Greater Victoria last month was $622,387, a jump over
April’s average of $609,376. Excluding previous months’ sales of over $4 million, the median has
returned to $534,250.
“Last month we told you that homebuyers were researching their purchases by working with home
inspectors, mortgage professionals and REALTORS®,” Crabb says. “Now they are moving forward, which
is often reflected in a spring market, even though it’s not feeling very spring-like.”
Total MLS® sales for May 2012 were 659, with 636 of those residential, compared to 572 and 544
respectively for the same period in 2011, and 586 and 565 last month. We ended May 2012 with 5,015
active listings.
Total waterfront Single Family Dwellings sold: 15, down 3 sales over May 2011
Total non-waterfront Single Family Dwellings sold: 373, up 38 sales over May 2011
Single Family Dwellings sold over $1 million: 24 (3 over $2 million

According to The Calgary Sun this am home prices in Canada are trending down……this appears to be evident in Victoria BC.

The March 2012 stats from the Victoria Real Estate Board are not yet available today due to a tech glitch but my informal search shows that in the range of 502 properties of all types sold in Victoria during March. This is down from March 2011 when 622 Properties sold. Properties priced over 700,000 are slower to sell. Listings appear to be around the same as last year for this time – over 4,100 properties on the market in all categories (including recreational and commercial).

Buyers are sharpening their pencils and I hope that the trend of sellers realizing that the “glory days” of the last decade continues to manifest itself – sales where there is a clear perception of “value” by the buyers are where it’s at……

Remember the definition of “market value” – willing buyer + willing seller. It’s that simple. Vicky

Rising house price trend slows

CALGARY, AB – Canadian resale house prices increased in February on a year-over-year basis; however, the February-to-February rate of increase is trending lower, suggesting home price growth may be topping out, according to the Canadian Real Estate Assoc.

CREA’s MLS Home Price Index (HPI) in February was up 5.1% from last year, the smallest since last June, marking the fourth consecutive month of slowing gains.

“MLS HPI trends for February show that home price growth is generally slowing,” says Gary Morse, CREA president.

“At the same time, price gains and trends differ among housing markets tracked by the index.” The MLS HPI in Calgary rose 2.5% year over year, the second smallest increase of the major populated areas identified in the CREA report.

The Greater Toronto Area registered the largest increase at 7.3%, followed by Greater Vancouver 6%, the Lower Mainland 5.5%, Fraser Valley 4% and Greater Montreal 2%. The MLS HPI rose 1.1% in February from January 2012.

“The index typically rises in February from the previous month as demand ramps up leading into the spring housing market,” says Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

“The monthly price increase in February this year was less than what we saw in either of the past two years, which is more evidence that the trend for Canadian home prices is slowing.”

VICKY